Can
earthquakes be predicted? Scientists and seismologists the world
Over say it is impossible. Eighty-year-old P N Nair, though,
believes he has developed a scientific method that can predict
both the general time frame and the location of an impending
earthquake.
Though science may dismiss him, thousands of Kutch residents will
now find it difficult to forget him. Earlier, when he predicted a
devastating earthquake would hit Gujarat by the end of January,
people pooh-poohed him. Then, when he published his forecast in
the Gujarat daily, Kutch Mitra, on January 8, the experts
dismissed it. Nair even tried his best to impress on the Gujarat
government the seriousness of his findings, but the authorities
ignored his warnings.
Which
is why, today, Nair is a frustrated man. Though he is Distraught
that most of his friends and neighbours in Gandhidham have
perished, he is relieved that his wife, two daughters, son and
their children are safe; that his house there has escaped with
only a few minor cracks. But, as he prepares to leave for
Gandhidham where he has been living for the past 51 years, Nair is
a hero among hundreds of villagers in the hilly area of Poonjar in
Kerala's Kottayam district. The reason: when he landed there on
January 24 to study the frequent tremors in Kerala's central
districts, Nair predicted a major earthquake would hit Gujarat
within seven days.
K N
Ramachandran, in whose house Nair made the prediction, is yet to
recover from the shock of finding out his guest was right. "On the
evening of January 24, Nair said he could sense thunderous sound
from within the earth. He then explained to me and others in the
village that an earthquake would soon hit Gujarat. When that
disaster actually happened on Republic Day, we were awestruck."
Ramachandran is a retired deputy director of education in Kerala.
Nair
denies any premonition about impending earthquakes. He adds that
unlike what people are beginning to attribute to him -- he does
not have any divine powers. "It is all scientific," he insists. "I
can predict earthquakes scientifically. But I am sad that the
authorities and the so-called seismological experts are unwilling
to listen to me."
When
and how did earthquakes begin to fascinate him so much that he
made it the focus of his life? Nair, who then worked for the
Military Engineering Services, was transferred from Kerala to
Kandla in 1949. Seven years later, an earthquake measuring seven
on the Richter Scale hit Gujarat, killing over a hundred people
and displacing hundreds. "I was a victim of the earthquake that
hit Kutch in 1956," he says. "I was wounded and our home was
partially damaged. It was then that I resolved I would study
earthquakes."
He
began at night, standing barefoot on the land outside his house.
And he would feel a sound, which he compares to that of a gunshot.
Occasionally, he would even feel an electric shock go through his
body. He read extensively on sound waves and the earth's
movements. He researched the entire Kutch area. And then, in 1974,
he announced what he called the Nair Effect Magnetic Field Theory.
"There is a momentary lightening and thunder effect below the
earth's crust when its plates collide. This produces a magnetic
field, whose properties are different from the earth's Geomagnetic
field.
"The
earth's crust is formed of plates. When these plates collide, the
electrons move and a process of ionization takes place, aided by
the high temperature below the earth's crust. The electrons start
moving almost 40 days prior to an earthquake. Due to the frequent
collision of plates in an earthquake prone area, the amount of
electrons emitted increases steadily so does the temperature under
the ground. The emitted electrons form of a magnetic field in the
area surrounding the plate. Finally, a force is experienced on the
earth's surface -- we call it an earthquake."
Nair
says the traditional tectonic theory accepted by seismologists has
many holes. "It does not explain the gap between the accumulation
of pressure under the ground and the actual earthquake.
Seismologists do not Know at happens between these two processes.
My theory fills this gap; it explains how a magnetic process takes
place both inside and outside the earth before an earthquake
actually happens."
Nair
claims that, seven days before an earthquake hits a region, one
can scientifically the following indicators: A humming effect
follows most sounds; swaying shock-waves; the rumbling sound of
vehicles or falling objects; the audibility of distant sounds;
echoes in the horizon; khar-khar sounds on the roads and flashes
of light that move from right to left on television sets.
Thunder-like sounds emanating from within the earth are the final
signal that an earthquake is near.
But
how do these indicators help Nair decide the location of an
earthquake? "The direction of these sounds can be scaled,
depending upon their strength and force. Let me try to explain
with a rough example. If you felt that these sounds were coming
from, say one kilometre away, it is certain the earthquake would
hit some 1,500 kilometers away."
How
does he measure these sounds? Nair has created an harmonium-like
instrument, powered by four batteries, that can feel the signals
of an impending earthquake. So how many earthquakes has he
predicted? "Many," says Nair, opening a diary in which he has
listed the times and the places of the earthquakes he has
predicted. He said that, sitting in Kutch which was 3,000
kilometres away, he predicted the earthquake that hit Iran and
Iraq two days before it happened. The quake registered five on the
Richter Scale. He says he also predicted the 1992 Tokyo earthquake
three days
before it happened.
In
the seventies, Nair wrote to then prime minister Indira Gandhi
about this ability to predict earthquakes. She forwarded his
request to the Indian Meteorological Department and other
earthquake research centres. "But I did not get any response from
them. Everyone thinks I am a prankster. If the government spends
half the money it wastes on the countless number of scientists and
seismologists who do no work across the country, I can develop a
world-class research centre for earthquakes in India." But neither
the government nor the experts have approved his theory. Nair,
though, has the support of the people of Kerala. In 1993, during
one of his visits to the state, Nair said Kerala was
earthquake-prone. On December 2, 2000, he predicted an earthquake
would hit the state; the prediction was dismissed by the people of
Kerala. On December 12 - just 10 days after Nair's prediction - an
earthquake measuring 5.2 on the Richter Scale hit Kerala for the
first time.
Since
then, the Malayalam vernacular press has dubbed him Earthquake
chettan (brother). In the last two months, Nair has held three
press conferences. He has addressed a number of public meetings
where he answers people's queries on earthquakes. He has received
a handful of invitations from various cultural societies to talk
about earthquake predictions. Nair, though, is preparing to return
to Gandhidham. To take stock of the earthquake's aftermath. And to
spread his theory about the future shocks that we can expect from
the planet we call home.
